Lawrence, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

452
FXUS63 KTOP 150329
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
929 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are anticipated into the weekend
  with increasingly breezy conditions.

- Rain moves across the area with a few thunderstorms Sunday
  night through Monday.

- Colder air arrives mid-week, which could bring some snowflakes
  early Thursday, but confidence remains low this far out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Sfc ridge axis extends from east TX through eastern KS and up into
MN as of 20Z, while the upper air pattern depicts a low-amplitude
ridge across the central portion of the CONUS. A longwave trough is
noted off the Pacific coast, which will set the stage for the
forecast a few days from now. In the meantime, expect benign weather
to continue in the area through Saturday. The pressure gradient
looks to tighten Friday into Saturday as the sfc high moves off to
the east and a lee trough develops ahead of the advancing upper
trough to the west. The northern stream is progged to move across
the Northern Plains Saturday with a sfc low in the Dakotas. This
should push a frontal boundary through the area Saturday night into
early Sunday. Before the front passes, the ECMWF is the most robust
in generating some light QPF across the area, but forecast soundings
show only a shallow layer of moisture, so have kept a dry forecast
with a 10% chance of precip. Breezy southerly winds Friday and
especially Saturday should keep warm temperatures with highs in the
60s.

The best chance for rain in the forecast comes Sunday night through
Monday. The southern stream of the aforementioned upper trough looks
to be digging into northern Mexico by Sunday afternoon, then
pivoting and moving north across the Plains through Monday. Good
moisture advection on the warm side of the system along with DCVA
should provide an opportunity for widespread rainfall. The vast
majority of the CWA has at least a 50% chance of seeing at least 1
inch of rain by the time the system moves out Tuesday morning.

Beyond Tuesday, models diverge on how the exiting system will
interact with another potential disturbance in the western US. This
keeps confidence low regarding any precipitation chances, but there
does appear to be a better signal for colder air moving into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday. This could result in some
snowflakes mixing in with rain as cold air wraps around the back
side of the system early Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 927 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

No significant changes to the going forecast. VFR conditions
expected with wind increasing from the SSE into midday tomorrow.
There could be an hour or so of very shallow ground fog mainly
around the KTOP terminal in the morning but probability remains
low.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Drake